Urban/Rural Growth Revisited

by Merry Schnell

Whatcom 2031 was the topic at the 42nd Legislative District Democrats meeting on Saturday, March 14. Panelists Dave Pros, former County Planning Commission member, Ken Mann, County Planning Commission member, and Carl Weimer, County Councilman, discussed some of the issues concerning the process of developing a plan for 20-year growth. Among the issues facing the Commission are how realistic current population projections are, can growth be accommodated in the existing incorporated cities, and how growth in rural areas can be controlled to preserve farmland and open spaces.

 The projected population growth for the county between 2011 and 2031 is at a maximum of 60,500 people, bringing the total population projection to around 258,000. These numbers are based on historical data and are allocated at a rate of 1.2% per year. The panel indicated that current city limits of Bellingham, Birch Bay, Blaine, Columbia Valley/Kendall, Everson, Ferndale, Nooksack, and Sumas would have the capacity to house these numbers of new people without redefining their city limits. The majority of the “in-fill” is expected to take place in Bellingham and Ferndale, while Lynden has the least amount of room for population in-fill.

Public perception that rural population growth has been too high in recent years matches the reality. The Comprehensive Plan calls for 6.37% of growth in unincorporated areas, but actual growth has been closer to 20% of the total. The Council intends to control the future rural sprawl by driving the growth to cities through the use of impact fees, shoreline restrictions, and other regulations like the recently passed on-site sewage system codes. Areas outside the city’s limits currently zoned for dense growth, called “Urban Growth Areas” (UGAs), may no longer be needed for future growth. The County Council will have to consider re-zoning these areas to rural density. For people who own property in thiese UGAs, expecting to see their property values rise with urban development, this change will not be popular.

Regardless of how the County plans for the influx of people, they know that it will be very hard to please everyone. The County Council has a deadline to put a plan in place by the end of June or face fines and loss of grant money. And inevitably, once a plan is put in place, sectors of the public will be outraged that “it” is happening in their backyard.

“The best way to influence the process is by getting involved early and participating often,” said Ken Mann.

Public workshops on these issues were held in late March, and more will be scheduled in the coming weeks. You can see meeting dates and find background information at
www.whatcomcounty.us/pds/2031/.